A way-too-early Top 25 takes on a new meaning in the transfer portal era.
With the portal scheduled to open Tuesday, just hours afterMichigan’s win over UConn in Monday’s NCAA championship game, nothing is close to set in stone for start of next season.
But there are indicators as to who has a head start in the race for next season’s national championship.
We know who’s definitely and most likely leaving from every roster, whether they’re seniors or underclassmen bound for theNBA Draft lottery. We also have an idea of the future difference-making freshmen who have yet to don a college uniform.
With that in mind, let’s take a shot at looking ahead to the preseason top 25, knowing full well that this will drastically change between now and then.
No. 1 Michigan
All things are coming up Michigan. Yaxel Lendeborg is gone and Morez Johnson Jr. could follow him to the NBA Draft.
But the Wolverines have the potential to return several rotation players, including starting point guard andNCAA tournament MOP Elliot Cadeau, who projects as the senior leader on next year’s team. Add ina top recruiting classfeaturing 5-star guard Brandon McCoy andDusty May’s track record of portal success, and Michigan could be in prime position to compete for another title.
No. 2 Duke
Maliq Brown (senior) and Cameron Boozer (NBA Draft) are gone. Patrick Ngongba and Isaiah Evans could follow Boozer to the NBA Draft. But there’s a lot of talent that could potentially return to Durham next season, including Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr.
As usual, Duke has a loaded incoming freshman classfeaturing three 5-star recruitsin Cam Williams, Deron Rippey and Bryce Howard that’sranked No. 1 in the nation by Rivals. There’s no Boozer or Cooper Flagg in this class, but Duke is reloaded for another shot to compete for a championship.
No. 3 Michigan State
Senior starters Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper are gone. But Michigan State has the potential to return the rest of the core of a tough and tested roster that earned a No. 3 seed and advanced to the Sweet 16.
This includes rising sophomore point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who projects as an All-America candidate next season. Add in thenation’s No. 7 recruiting classand another year at the helm from Hall of Fame coach Tom Izzo, and the Spartans should be a force again next season.
No. 4 Illinois
All-America freshman Keaton Wagler is almost certainly gone to the NBA Draft lottery, and his backcourt mate Kylan Boswell is a senior. But the bulk of the rest of the core of Illinois’ Euro-centric Final Four roster has the potential to return.
Illinois hasfour 3-star prospects in its 21st-ranked recruiting class,and coach Brad Underwood has a track record of attracting talent in the portal.
No. 5 Arizona
Arizona loses top-end talent from its Final Four team in senior Jaden Bradley and freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat. There’s a chance Peat returns to improve his stock, but both freshmen are likely gone to the NBA Draft.
If All-Big 12 center Motiejus Krivas forgoes the draft, the Wildcats could return a significant portion of their rotation outside the players at the top. And coach Tommy Lloyd brings inthe nation’s No 4 recruiting classin addition tohis lucrative new contract.
No. 6 Arkansas
Breakout freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr. is almost certainly gone to the NBA Draft lottery. Starting forward Trevon Brazile is an outgoing senior. The rest of the core of Arkansas’ Sweet 16 team has the potential to return.
And the recruits that used to join John Calipari at Kentucky are following him to Fayetteville.Arkansas’ recruiting classranks second only to Duke’s and features5-star Jordan Smith Jr., an explosive combo guard who should slot in in Acuff’s absence before hearing his own name called in the lottery next summer.
No. 7 UConn
Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr., both seniors and NBA Draft prospects, are gone. But the cupboard isn’t bare in Storrs. Braylon Mullins, Solo Ball and Silas Demary could all be back from a roster that led the Huskies to their third trip to the national title game in four seasons.
Dan Hurley brings ina 10th-ranked recruiting classfeaturing a pair of four-star guards in Junior County and Colben Landrew. And UConn projects to pull its share of talent in the portal. Expect the Huskies to compete once again next season.
No. 8 Virginia
Malik Thomas is the only outgoing senior from a starting lineup that kept Virginia competitive in the ACC and earned a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. Nobody’s expected to leave for the NBA Draft.
If starters Thijs de Ridder, Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory all return, Virginia projects for another strong season in the ACC. But there’s little room for error. The Cavaliers don’t have any incoming prospects committed and must win in the transfer portal to remain competitive.
No. 9 Alabama
A potential lottery pick, All-SEC guard LaBaron Philon is likely gone. An outgoing senior, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. is definitely gone.
But Alabama potentially returns the rest of the starting five and the bulk of its remaining core from a team that advanced to a fourth consecutive Sweet 16 — that is if Aden Holloway is free to play afterfacing felony marijuana charges. Whomever returns will be joined by another strong Nate Oats recruiting class thatfeatures three 4-star prospectsand ranks sixth in the nation.
No. 10 Gonzaga
Senior starters Graham Ike and Tyon Grant-Foster are gone from a team that earned a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. Rising senior Braden Huff is in line to take over as the face of the Zags after a knee injury ended his season early. He finished second in points and third in rebounds per game for Gonzaga.
Gonzaga projects to return several rotation players andwill add two four-star prospectsfrom its incoming freshman class. There’s work to do in the portal, but Mark Few should field another competitive team next season.
No. 11 Florida
This will come down in large part to who stays and who goes to the NBA Draft. Thomas Haugh is almost certainly gone. Fellow frontline stars Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu are borderline prospects for this year’s draft who could go either way.
If both return, Florida could be higher on this list as Xaivian Lee is the only outgoing senior from its starting five. There’s not much help froma 99th-ranked recruiting classthat features a single 3-star prospect. There’s work to do in the portal, regardless of Condon’s and Chinyelu’s decisions.
No. 12 Kansas
Darryn Peterson is a sure bet for the NBA Draft lottery, and senior starters Tre White and Melvin Council are also gone. Starters Flory Bidunga and Bryson Tillercould also be gone in the transfer portal.
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The good news for Kansas is that head coachBill Self is back. And Kansas has four 4-star prospects incoming fromthe nation’s No. 12 recruiting class. Kansas is also in the running to landNo. 1 overall prospect Tyran Stokes,which would move it further up this board. Expect Self to reload through the portal as well.
No. 13 North Carolina
Caleb Wilson is almost certainly gone to the NBA Draft lottery, and senior leader Seth Trimble’s career is done. Then there’s the seismic matter of leadership change in Chapel Hill.Out is head coach Hubert Davisafter five years.In comes NBA champion head coach Michael Malone, who has minimal college experience.
How Malone manages the transfer portal and adapts to the college game is one of the biggest stories of the offseason and next season. There’s upside on the roster, especially if All-ACC forward Henri Veesaar returns. Promising rising sophomore guard Derek Dixon is entering the portal, butleft the door open to return. Five-star guard Dylan Mingo headlinesa three-man recruiting class— if he remains committed to Malone’s staff. The Tar Heels will enter next season with a lot of questions and a lot of potential outcomes.
No. 14 Houston
Houston’s best window to win an NCAA championship under Kelvin Sampson may have just closed. All-America guard Kingston Flemings is almost certainly gone to the NBA Draft, and fellow freshman Chris Cenac could join him. Senior starters Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan are definitely gone.
Sampson is bringing in a pair of 4-star prospects in 7-foot center Arafan Diane and point guard Ikenna Aloziefrom the nation’s No. 9 recruiting class. Both project to play significant roles alongside rising senior Joseph Tugler if Tugler returns. If Houston finds success in the portal, expect the Cougars to remain competitive.
No. 15 Nebraska
Nebraska made the biggest leap in program history in 2025-26, winning its first two NCAA tournament games ever. Fred Hoiberg could return with another competitive team next season.
Nebraska loses outgoing senior starters Rienk Mast and Jamarques Lawrence. Pryce Sandfort’s decision will be key. Nebraska’s leading scorer, he projects as a second-round NBA Draft prospect and could find returning to Lincoln a more attractive option. He could return to jointournament hero Braden Fragerin the starting lineup. Nebraska has two 4-star commitments inthe nation’s 36th-ranked recruiting class.
No. 16 Texas Tech
Texas Tech suffered a big blow when All-America candidate J.T. Toppin tore his right ACL late in the season. This ranking is dependent on his recovery and return rather than entering the NBA Draft, where his prospects are uncertain coming off his injury. A rising senior, Toppin projects as a National Player of the year candidate if he does return in time to play the bulk of the season.
Backcourt leader Christian Anderson also comes with a big question mark. The rising junior is a borderline first-round prospect who may or may not enter the NBA Draft. If both return healthy, they’ll be joined bya pair of 4-star prospectsfrom Texas Tech’s 24th-ranked recruiting class. Donovan Atwell is the only outgoing senior from the starting five.
No. 17 Iowa State
Iowa State is losing significant talent from its Elite Eight team, most notably outgoing senior All-America Joshua Jefferson. Senior guard Tamin Lipsey is also gone. What Milan Momcilovic decides to do will be key.
A 48.7% 3-point shooter, Momcilovic could test the NBA Draft waters. If he does, ISU will lose its top three scorers. He could also very well return, giving Iowa State one of the best shooters in the country alongside promising rising sophomores Killyan Toure and Jamarion Batemon.ISU features two 4-star and two 3-star prospectsin its 37th-ranked recruiting class.
No. 18 Tennessee
The Volunteers made a third straight Elite Eight under Rick Barnes, but are losing a lot of talent. Nate Ament is expected to jump to the NBA Draft despite his up-and-down freshman campaign. Senior starters Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Felix Okpara are gone, and J.P Estrella has announced thathe’s entering the transfer portal.
Tennessee will look to rising sophomore and former 4-star prospect Amari Evans to take a step forward after his limited action as a freshman reserve. Incoming Belmont sharpshooter Tyler Lundblade (40.6% from 3) signals an early portal win as a graduate transfer. Four-star forward Ralph Scott highlights the nation’s38th-ranked recruiting class.
No. 19 Miami
Miami found success in Year 1 under head coach Jai Lucas, competing in the ACC and earning a No. 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Hurricanes are losing a significant part of their core in outgoing seniors Malik Reneau, Tre Donaldson and Ernest Udeh Jr.
Rising sophomore wing Shelton Henderson should step into a leadership role after a standout campaign as a freshman starter. He’ll likely be joined in the starting lineup by one of the best freshman prospects in the countryin 5-star forward Caleb Gaskins. Lucas built last year’s roster from nearly scratch after joining the program from Jon Scheyer’s staff at Duke. This ranking is dependent in part on his continued ability to attract players through the transfer portal.
No. 20 Purdue
Gone is senior All-America guard Braden Smith after one of the most successful individual runs in program history. As are fellow senior starters Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff,unless Cluff is granted an eligibility waiver.
It’s a new era at Purdue, and one that could be led by guard Antione West Jr., who’s expected to step into a significant role after redshirting as a freshman. Add in three 4-star prospects fromthe nation’s No. 7 recruiting class, and there’s promise — though expectations for immediate success should be tempered.
No. 21 Ohio State
Ohio State loses two senior starters in Christoph Tilley and leading scorer Bruce Thornton. Fellow starter Devin Royalplans to enter the portal. Starters John Mobley and Amare Bynum could both return as the veteran anchors from a team that earned a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament.
And they’d be joined by one of the best freshmen in the country. Five-star wingAnthony Thompson headlines the nation’s 17th-ranked recruiting classand could be an immediate difference-maker in the Big Ten.
No. 22 USC
There’s reason for hope at USC after an 18-14 campaign and missing the NCAA tournament for a third straight season. Third-year coach Eric Musselman has so far securedthe nation’s No. 3 recruiting classhighlighted by 5-star wing Christian Collins and 4-star bigs and twin brothers Adonis and Darius Ratliff.
Senior leaders Chad Baker-Mazara and Ezra Ausar are gone. But there’s talent here to make a leap in Musselman’s third season at the helm — especially if USC can find success in the portal. The expectation next season will be a return to the NCAA tournament.
No. 23 St. John’s
St. John’s is losing the bulk of this year’s Sweet 16 roster, including senior startersZuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins, Dillon Mitchell and Oziyah Sellers. It also has nobody yet committed from the upcoming freshman class.
So why the top-25 ranking? There is talent projected to return, most notably former 5-star guard Ian Jackson, who will have a chance to shine as a junior after a pair of underwhelming seasons with North Carolina and St. John’s. And Rick Pitino will attack the transfer portal like few others. He built last season’s roster largely through the portal and very well could end up with another contender once the portal is closed.
No. 24 Missouri
Missouri will lose several key players from this season’s NCAA tournament team, including senior starters and leading scorers Mark Mitchell and Jayden Stone.
But the roster will be reinforced witha loaded recruiting classthat features 5-star guard Jason Crowe Jr. and comes in ranked No. 9 in the nation. If head coach Dennis Gates can match that recruiting success in the portal, the Tigers could improve on last season.
No. 25 Kentucky
Otegah Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen, both seniors, are gone. ThoughAberdeen is attempting to secure a fifth year of eligibilitythrough the transfer portal. Either way, he won’t be in Lexington.
Keeping starters Malachi Moreno and Collin Chandler will be key as the Wildcats facemultiple potential defections in the portal. There’s no Calipari recruiting class on the horizon.Mark Pope’s classfeatures no 5-stars, one 4-star (point guard Mason Williams) and ranks 55th in the country.
Success in the portal is must for Pope as he enters next season on the hot seat. If not, the Wildcats won’t stand a chance of maintaining this ranking.
